The 2030 Grid
A simulation of what Britain's electricity could look like in 2030 — running in real time against today's actual weather and demand data. This is the 2030 Blueprint: a scenario for a net-zero electricity system that goes beyond government and NESO targets.
How the 2030 Blueprint works
To decarbonise electricity I've made the following changes to the electricity mix:
- 3.2 GW of nuclear power stations (i.e. Hinkley C)
- 3× the amount of wind generation
- 3× the amount of solar generation (10 million solar homes)
- 1.5× more biomass capacity, dispatched only when wind and solar are low
- No coal
- 200 GWh of electricity storage — approximately 12x more than Dinorwig and Cruachan combined
Dispatch order: nuclear runs baseload, then hydro, solar and wind. When supply exceeds demand, storage charges until full — then wind and solar are curtailed. Gas is the last resort, used only when all other sources are insufficient. Biomass is held back to avoid depleting this finite resource.
The assumptions are sufficient to show whether enough low carbon electricity can be generated when it is needed. They are not a complete optimisation of cost or carbon reduction. Demand profiles are not changed.
The 2030 Blueprint is outlined in my book Decarbonising Electricity: Made Simple. For the full methodology, see: Crossland et al., Assessment of Electricity Decarbonization Scenarios for New Zealand and Great Britain, Energies 2020, 13, 2799. doi:10.3390/en13112799
Full LCOE assumptions — including source data, the gas load-factor formula, curtailment accounting, and the nuclear exclusion rationale — are documented in the About page methodology section.
Today vs the 2030 Blueprint
The right-handlower pie shows a simulation of what the 2030 Blueprint electricity mix would have looked like over the last 28 days — using actual weather and demand data, but with the Blueprint's generating capacity in place. The leftupper shows what actually happened.
The 2030 Blueprint in action
The simulation runs the 2030 Blueprint mix against real-time weather and demand data over the last 28 days7 days, showing how an expanded fleet of wind, solar, nuclear and storage would actually perform. Gas almost disappears; storage charges during sunny and windy periods and discharges at night; curtailment rises when renewables generate more than demand and storage can absorb.
Renewable curtailment
With 3× more wind and solar, some renewable generation must be curtailed — switched off when output exceeds demand and storage is full. The chart shows what happens to each unit of wind and solar generation under the 2030 Blueprint.