The National Energy System Operator released the Clean Power 2030 plan on 5 November 2024. I ran the pathways through my Digital Twin of the GB electricity mix the same morning. This is an exciting and achievable vision. My comments below are not criticism of the plan but a set of questions I think we should be asking as we try to go further.
What matters most to me is the type of net zero we want. Homes need a much more central role in the thinking because of the direct benefits to us all.
1. Low electricity demand forecast
Electricity demand is expected to be pretty low in 2030. That suggests a slow rollout of EVs and heat pumps in the modelling despite both having big carbon and energy security importance. Demand is roughly the same as it was in 2015.
2. Offshore wind, solar and onshore wind do the heavy lifting
All three are increasing about 3x from today's levels. That's a fast rollout so expect talk of new grid infrastructure to support them. As the report says: "Sustained rollout of offshore wind is needed at over double the highest rate ever achieved in Great Britain."
3. Domestic solar is barely mentioned
Very little direct mention of domestic solar despite this directly reducing energy bills, requiring little land take and being able to support the grid edge. NESO need some strategic thinking here in my view.
4. Nuclear is not accelerating
No acceleration of nuclear power with no SMRs until the mid 2030s. If I were in the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, I would be working with industry to see if SMR technology can be accelerated in the UK as it is globally.
5. Domestic supply chains need pinning down
Lots of talk about domestic supply chains. I'd hope for that to be a feature in next year's discussions on CfDs and other market support mechanisms.
6. Biomass is still in the mix
It is very worrying to see biomass still part of the mix. There's so much doubt about biomass and its true environmental impact. Recent analysis suggests Drax will keep raising carbon emission levels until the 2050s.
7. My Digital Twin broadly agrees
My digital twin broadly agrees with the results, but there are some other levers that we could be modelling.
8. Energy storage is underestimated
The role of short and long duration energy storage is underestimated. I think we can dispatch even less gas than in the NESO scenario by leveraging storage of synthetic fuels. In my model, storage with 50% efficiency still dispatches more gas than the NESO pathway and at a lower cost. We need to be looking strategically at long duration storage and the impact it can have on energy security and net zero.
9. Independent modelling of the grid is needed
We need independent modelling of the grid itself to ensure NESO is fairly and properly challenged on the scenarios. I will speak to Durham Energy Institute about whether it can provide that.
10. The mission looks possible, but we can go further
The mission looks very possible. Perhaps NESO are leaning on what we know we can do. My call is to ask ourselves: what else can we do to be a clean energy superpower?