This page assesses whether Britain can decarbonise electricity by simulating a possible 2030 electricity mix. To do so, I have built a system which simulates new power stations using real time weather and grid data, to see if that meets our electricity demands and carbon targets. This is what I do for a living, so it is a pleasure to be able to share it with you.
To decarbonise electricity, I’ve made the following changes to the electricity mix.
- 3.2GW of new nuclear power stations (i.e Hinkley C)
- 3x the amount of wind generation
- 3x the amount of solar generation (10 million solar homes)
- 1.5x more power available biomass, but I only dispatch biofuel when wind and solar are low so that we don’t waste this resource.
- No coal
- 100 GWh of electricity storage (Approx. 6x more capacity than Dinorwig and Cruchan)
The basis of the manifesto is outlined in my book, Decarbonising Electricity: Made Simple. Check back regularly to see the manifesto working. In response to feedback from followers I periodically update the mix.
To produce the manifesto for low carbon electricity, I made a number of assumptions. You can also read about my method in this paper which I published with colleagues in 2020:
Crossland, A.; Scoles, K.; Wang, A.; Groves, C.; Sun, S. Assessment of Electricity Decarbonization Scenarios for New Zealand and Great Britain using a Plant Dispatch and Electrical Energy Storage Modelling Framework. Energies2020, 13, 2799. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13112799
The assumptions are sufficient to show if we can make enough low carbon electricity when we need it. They are not a complete optimisation of price reduction or carbon reduction. They do not
- Nuclear plants are always turned on. There is no flexibility to regularly turn these on our off in real life.
- Hydro is the next to be dispatched followed by solar and then wind.
- If there is not enough demand for generation then:
- Energy storage plants are charged until they are full.
- If energy storage plants are full then wind generators are turned off first, then solar.
- Energy storage plants are used if there is insufficient wind, solar, hydro and nuclear power to meet demand. They are used until they are empty.
- Once energy storage plants are empty then biomass is dispatched up to it’s maximum power. I limit the amount of biomass to ensure that this finite resource is not used up too quickly.
- If there is insufficient biomass then low carbon imports are used.
- If we are still short of electricity generation then gas power stations are used to make up the difference.
- Gas generation must be at least 5% of supply when energy storage facilities are empty.
- Carbon factors are taken from the IPCC and outlined on the About section of this website. Note that this includes embedded carbon in construction, operation and decomissioning.
- I don’t change the demand profile… just yet (watch this space!)
If you have any comments on the manifesto, then please drop me a direct message on Twitter.